R-22 and R-410A Are Both Phased Out.
Here's What That Means for You.

The Law That Changed Everything

In 2020, Congress passed the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, giving the EPA authority to phase down the production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) — the chemicals used in most air conditioning and heat pump systems. The goal is an 85% reduction in HFC production by 2036.

This wasn't sudden. The phaseout has been building for decades:

We've Seen This Before: The R-22 Price Explosion

If you want to know what's coming for R-410A equipment, look at what happened to R-22. The pattern is identical — and the price trajectory is a warning.

R-22 Price Per Pound — From Phaseout to Today

Year	Price Per Pound	What Happened	% Increase
Pre-2010	$10 – $15	R-22 widely available. Standard refrigerant for all AC systems.	—
2010	$15 – $25	EPA bans new R-22 equipment. Supply begins tightening.	+67%
2015	$60 – $85	Production quotas cut further. 30-lb tank hits ~$450.	+400%
2017	$100 – $150	Production reduced another 28%. Contractors report sticker shock.	+800%
2020	$150 – $200	Production and import banned. Only recovered/recycled supply remains.	+1,200%
2025	$90 – $250	Supply nearly exhausted. Some areas see $250+/lb. Many contractors no longer carry it.	+1,500%

R-410A Is on the Same Path — Right Now

R-410A is currently around $10–$25 per pound. That's where R-22 was in 2010. The production ban on new R-410A equipment took effect January 1, 2025. Production quotas for the refrigerant itself will tighten through 2036. The supply curve is identical to R-22 — just shifted forward by 15 years.

The new replacement — R-454B — already saw severe supply chain issues in 2025. Honeywell imposed a 42% surcharge on R-454B due to raw material costs. Prices for a 20-lb cylinder of R-454B spiked as high as $2,000 during peak season, compared to $345 per cylinder in 2021. New A2L-compatible systems are costing 15–30% more than equivalent R-410A systems did, and the gap is widening.

What This Means for Your Equipment

Here's the part no one wants to hear: your R-22 or R-410A system cannot be converted. There is no retrofit. No drop-in replacement. When it breaks, you're either paying rising prices for scarce refrigerant to keep it running — or you're replacing the entire system with new A2L-compatible equipment.

You Will Not Be Able to Fix It — Or It Won't Be Worth It

As R-410A follows the R-22 trajectory, here's what changes for your equipment over the next 5–10 years:

• Refrigerant costs will rise — R-410A production is being phased down. Every year, there's less available. Prices will climb the same way R-22 did — slowly at first, then sharply
• Parts will become scarce — manufacturers are retooling their factories for A2L systems. R-410A compressors, coils, expansion valves, and control boards will become harder to source and more expensive. Some already are
• Fewer technicians will work on it — the industry is training on A2L systems. As R-410A equipment becomes the minority, fewer contractors will stock parts or have the inventory to service these systems
• Repairs become "throwing good money after bad" — at a certain point, spending $3,000–$8,000 on a compressor replacement for a system that uses a dying refrigerant doesn't make financial sense. But you won't have a choice if you haven't planned ahead

The Repairs That Break the Bank

Not all HVAC repairs are created equal. Some are minor. Others are system-threatening — and these are the ones that will force the upgrade decision on you whether you're ready or not.

Compressor Replacement

The compressor is the heart of your AC system. When it fails, you're looking at the single most expensive HVAC repair possible short of full replacement.

Now add context: if that compressor is in a 10-year-old R-410A system, you're spending $3,000–$10,000 to repair a system running on a refrigerant that's being phased out. The compressor itself may last another 5–8 years — but by then, R-410A may cost $50–$100+ per pound, and the next failure may not have available parts.

Other High-Cost Repairs on Aging Systems

Repair	Residential	Commercial	Worth It at Year 10+?
Compressor replacement	$1,800 – $2,800	$3,000 – $10,000	Rarely
Evaporator coil replacement	$1,000 – $2,000	$2,000 – $5,000	Sometimes
Condenser coil replacement	$800 – $1,800	$1,500 – $4,000	Rarely
Refrigerant leak repair + recharge	$500 – $1,500	$1,000 – $5,000+	Depends on leak severity
Heat exchanger replacement	$1,500 – $3,000	$2,500 – $6,000	Almost never — replace the furnace

The Efficiency Factor You're Ignoring

Beyond repair costs and refrigerant availability, there's a third financial argument for upgrading: your old system is burning money every month.

HVAC efficiency degrades over time. Even a well-maintained system loses 5–10% of its rated efficiency over its lifespan. A system that was 13 SEER when installed 12 years ago is likely operating at 10–11 SEER today. New A2L systems start at 15–16 SEER2 and go up to 20+ SEER2.

This means even if your old system is "working fine," it's costing you $500–$1,500+ more per year in energy than a new one would. Over a 5-year period, that's $2,500–$7,500 in wasted energy — money that could have gone toward a new system.

When Does It Make Sense to Upgrade?

The typical service life of an HVAC system is 10–15 years residential, 12–20 years commercial (depending on equipment type and maintenance). Here's a framework for thinking about the upgrade decision at different points in that lifecycle:

Every Major Manufacturer Has Already Moved On

This isn't a future event. The transition is done. The companies that make HVAC equipment have retooled their entire product lines for A2L refrigerants:

• Carrier — adopted R-454B (branded "Puron Advance") across residential and commercial systems
• Trane — transitioned to R-454B starting in 2024. Validated performance through the U.S. Department of Energy's Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge
• Lennox — updated entire 2025 product lineup. R-454B for ducted systems, R-32 for ductless mini-splits
• Daikin / Goodman / Amana — chose R-32 as primary A2L refrigerant. Over 280 million R-32 products in use globally. Up to 12% more efficient than R-410A
• York (Johnson Controls) — adopted R-454B for new residential and commercial equipment

When Carrier, Trane, Lennox, Daikin, and York have all moved on — that tells you everything about where the industry is going. The R-410A chapter is closed. Parts, refrigerant, and support for legacy systems will follow the same declining path that R-22 took.

What "A2L" Actually Means

A2L is a safety classification from ASHRAE (the industry standards body). It stands for:

• A = Low toxicity (same classification as R-22 and R-410A — no change)
• 2L = Mildly flammable (the "L" stands for lower flammability)

The "mildly flammable" part sounds alarming, but context matters. A2L refrigerants require a direct flame source and a high concentration to ignite. If they do ignite, the flame is unsustainable and spreads slower than walking speed. New A2L systems include built-in refrigerant detection systems that shut down the unit and ventilate if a leak is detected. In practice, A2L systems are already in use worldwide in hundreds of millions of units — including in vehicles and portable AC units you may already own.

The two primary A2L refrigerants replacing R-410A are:

• R-454B (also known as Opteon XL41 or Puron Advance) — GWP of 466, a 78% reduction from R-410A's GWP of 2,088. Adopted by Carrier, Trane, Lennox, and York.
• R-32 — GWP of 675. Single-component refrigerant, no blending required. Widely used globally. Adopted by Daikin, Goodman, and Amana. Up to 12% more efficient than R-410A.

What You Should Do Now

1. Know What Refrigerant Your System Uses

Check the data plate on your outdoor unit or ask your HVAC contractor. If it says R-22 or HCFC-22, your system is well past due for replacement. If it says R-410A, you have time — but the clock is ticking.

2. Get a System Assessment

We'll evaluate your current equipment — age, condition, refrigerant type, efficiency, and remaining useful life — and give you a straight answer on whether it makes sense to repair, maintain, or replace. No pressure, no sales pitch. Just the data.

3. Budget and Plan

If you're in the year 7–10 window, start budgeting now. Get quotes. Understand your options. A planned replacement costs 20–30% less than an emergency one and gives you access to better equipment, better pricing, and available rebates.

4. Take Advantage of Available Incentives

Con Edison Clean Heat incentives offer $10,000+ in rebates for qualifying heat pump installations in NYC. Federal tax credits for high-efficiency systems are also available. These incentives won't last forever — and they significantly offset the cost of upgrading to a new A2L system.